According to @StockMKTNewz, the U.S. recorded a $284.4 billion budget deficit in October 2025, the first month of fiscal 2026, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of $230 billion by $54.4 billion, or about 23.7 percent. Source: @StockMKTNewz citing Seeking Alpha; Bloomberg. This larger-than-expected shortfall at the start of FY2026 puts focus on Treasury financing needs and rate expectations that traders monitor for impacts on bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and risk sentiment in BTC and ETH. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury financing and issuance practices; @StockMKTNewz.

According to the source, traders should focus on USD liquidity mechanics rather than headlines: when the Treasury General Account rises and the Fed’s ON RRP absorbs cash, bank reserves decline and financial conditions tighten, a backdrop that has historically pressured risk assets including BTC and ETH. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances; Federal Reserve Bank of New York, System Open Market Account data. A divided FOMC raises uncertainty about the rate path, which can lift real yields and the dollar—both typically negative for crypto returns via tighter financial conditions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC minutes; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, National Financial Conditions Index. Even if QT slows or ends, Treasury refunding and TGA rebuild phases can temporarily drain private-sector liquidity and offset easing impulses, sustaining pressure on risk assets. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Quarterly Refunding Announcement; Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee minutes. Crypto-native liquidity also matters: declines in aggregate stablecoin market value reduce spot buying power and often coincide with weaker crypto spot demand. Source: Federal Reserve, Financial Stability Report (stablecoin section); Coin Metrics, Stablecoin Supply data. For trading, monitor DXY, 10-year TIPS real yield, weekly changes in ON RRP/TGA, and net stablecoin issuance; improvements in these indicators have aligned with stronger crypto performance during prior cycles. Source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) methodology; U.S. Treasury Daily/Monthly Statements; Federal Reserve H.4.1; Coin Metrics; IMF Global Financial Stability Note on crypto-equity correlations.